November 6th, 2012 by Winston
It is a very real possibility that a serious of bad turnout models means that Obama’s support in the states is overestimated by as many as 5 points as explained here. If they are wrong across...
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November 6th, 2012 by Winston
If the polls are off by 2.5 pts in Obama’s favor -a very real possibility as explained here – then here’s the map – Romney wins with 285-253. Here’s the map.
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November 6th, 2012 by Winston
Everyone on the right is speculating that the polls must be wrong because many are predicting that the partisan turnout model to be similar to the 2008 election, when Democrats were energized and...
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November 6th, 2012 by Winston
As I’ve been doing since 2000 – before the RCP average was a glimmer in some political geek’s left brain – I present the Federal Review Composite Poll. In 2000, 2004 and...
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October 30th, 2012 by Winston
NPR released its latest 2012 Presidential Poll, showing Romney with a narrow lead, 48-47. Gallup, meanwhile has Romney up 51-46 as of the same date. Why the difference? NPR estimates that...
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