Landslide Scenario – Turnout Based

It is a very real possibility that a serious of bad turnout models means that Obama’s support in the states is overestimated by as many as 5 points as explained here. If they are wrong across the board by 4 points, then here’s the landslide scenario that Michael Baron and Dick Morris (among others) must [...]

How the Polls Might Be Wrong 2

If the polls are off by 2.5 pts in Obama’s favor -a very real possibility as explained here – then here’s the map – Romney wins with 285-253. Here’s the map. Related Posts:How the Polls Might Be Wrong (R337-O221)Federal Review Composite Poll, Election Projection and SimulationNewspaper Endorsements for President 2012Why Romney Will Win (the Nomination [...]

How the Polls Might Be Wrong (R337-O221)

Everyone on the right is speculating that the polls must be wrong because many are predicting that the partisan turnout model to be similar to the 2008 election, when Democrats were energized and Republicans often stayed home. This is an absolutely wrong assumption, they argue. Besides, the polls – even in Ohio – regularly show [...]

Federal Review Composite Poll, Election Projection and Simulation

As I’ve been doing since 2000 – before the RCP average was a glimmer in some political geek’s left brain – I present the Federal Review Composite Poll. In 2000, 2004 and 2008 I kept a running update during the year, but just didn’t have the time to keep creating an electoral map, and my [...]

Newspaper Endorsements for President 2012

Many newspapers tend to endorse the same party’s candidate election after election – so it is instructive to see where editorial boards have moved from one party to another. It’s even more enlightening during a reelection campaign if a paper endorsed the current president in the last election, but is making the case for his [...]

Did the Obama Administration Illegally Waive the Welfare Work Requirement? (Is the Romney ad a Lie?)

They may as well have, because they have solicited requests for waivers from the work requirement, but they do not have the statutory authority to grant waivers from the work requirement. Let me walk you through the law. Bear with me. The work requirement for welfare is laid out in Section 407 of the Social [...]

Why Romney Will Win (the Nomination and the Election)

Despite the current conniptions over a possibly contested convention in Tampa, Romney will gain the delegates necessary before then. Even though the GOP has done an admirable thing with most states allocating proportionally rather than winner-take-all. Proportional allocation guarantees a longer primary fight. And if, for some reason, Romney does not have the numbers come [...]