Landslide Scenario – Turnout Based

It is a very real possibility that a serious of bad turnout models means that Obama’s support in the states is overestimated by as many as 5 points as explained here. If they are wrong across the board by 4 points, then here’s the landslide scenario that Michael Baron and Dick Morris (among others) must [...]

How the Polls Might Be Wrong 2

If the polls are off by 2.5 pts in Obama’s favor -a very real possibility as explained here – then here’s the map – Romney wins with 285-253. Here’s the map. Related Posts:How the Polls Might Be Wrong (R337-O221)Federal Review Composite Poll, Election Projection and SimulationNewspaper Endorsements for President 2012Why Romney Will Win (the Nomination [...]

How the Polls Might Be Wrong (R337-O221)

Everyone on the right is speculating that the polls must be wrong because many are predicting that the partisan turnout model to be similar to the 2008 election, when Democrats were energized and Republicans often stayed home. This is an absolutely wrong assumption, they argue. Besides, the polls – even in Ohio – regularly show [...]

Federal Review Composite Poll, Election Projection and Simulation

As I’ve been doing since 2000 – before the RCP average was a glimmer in some political geek’s left brain – I present the Federal Review Composite Poll. In 2000, 2004 and 2008 I kept a running update during the year, but just didn’t have the time to keep creating an electoral map, and my [...]

NPR Poll Agrees with Gallup – Romney may be up 6

NPR released its latest 2012 Presidential Poll, showing Romney with a narrow lead, 48-47. Gallup, meanwhile has Romney up 51-46 as of the same date. Why the difference? NPR estimates that Democratic turnout will exceed Republican turnout by 6%. Gallup says that Republicans will exceed Democrats by 1%. Here’s how it breaks down. So, the [...]

Newspaper Endorsements for President 2012

Many newspapers tend to endorse the same party’s candidate election after election – so it is instructive to see where editorial boards have moved from one party to another. It’s even more enlightening during a reelection campaign if a paper endorsed the current president in the last election, but is making the case for his [...]

Why Romney Will Win (the Nomination and the Election)

Despite the current conniptions over a possibly contested convention in Tampa, Romney will gain the delegates necessary before then. Even though the GOP has done an admirable thing with most states allocating proportionally rather than winner-take-all. Proportional allocation guarantees a longer primary fight. And if, for some reason, Romney does not have the numbers come [...]

Jon Stewart disappointed Obama not more of a dictator

Over in Rolling Stone, Jon Stewart, “the Walter Cronkite of this generation,” frets that the president hasn’t done more to circumvent the Constitution’s separation of powers: I’m surprised at how much he deferred to the legislative process. He’s accomplished some things, and I’m sure he’s pleased with what he’s done, but I would have preferred [...]

Is the Balanced Budget Amendment really a good idea?

I have serious concerns about the efficacy of a Balanced Budget Amendment. Who’s going to enforce the Amendment? The Federal Courts have the power to construe and enforce the U.S. Constitution including its Amendments. So if the budget is not in balance, what remedies might the courts impose? North Carolina provides and instructive case. Under [...]

“Dad” Get Me Out of This (Obama goes running to Bill for Cover)

Last year I read the book Game Change, a behind the scenes account of the 2008 campaign. One of the major themes of the book was about how the (supposedly) brilliant Obama had wrested control of the Democrat party away from the Clintons, even getting Hillary to take a job as his subordinate. Man. Looks [...]

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