How the Polls Might Be Wrong 2

If the polls are off by 2.5 pts in Obama’s favor -a very real possibility as explained here – then here’s the map – Romney wins with 285-253. Here’s the map. Related Posts:How the Polls Might Be Wrong (R337-O221)Federal Review Composite Poll, Election Projection and SimulationNewspaper Endorsements for President 2012Why Romney Will Win (the Nomination [...]

How the Polls Might Be Wrong (R337-O221)

Everyone on the right is speculating that the polls must be wrong because many are predicting that the partisan turnout model to be similar to the 2008 election, when Democrats were energized and Republicans often stayed home. This is an absolutely wrong assumption, they argue. Besides, the polls – even in Ohio – regularly show [...]

Federal Review Composite Poll, Election Projection and Simulation

As I’ve been doing since 2000 – before the RCP average was a glimmer in some political geek’s left brain – I present the Federal Review Composite Poll. In 2000, 2004 and 2008 I kept a running update during the year, but just didn’t have the time to keep creating an electoral map, and my [...]

Federal Review Composite Poll

Yes, we will be resuming the Federal Review Composite Poll this year. As it has always been, it will be a meta analysis of polls, state-by-state. Unlike the pedestrian Real Clear Politics average, it will be based upon a weighted analysis of polls based upon margin of error, sample size, respondent type. We have done [...]