Landslide Scenario – Turnout Based

Posted on | November 6, 2012 | 1 Comment

It is a very real possibility that a serious of bad turnout models means that Obama’s support in the states is overestimated by as many as 5 points as explained here. If they are wrong across the board by 4 points, then here’s the landslide scenario that Michael Baron and Dick Morris (among others) must be seeing. Personally, I don’t see this happen, but I wouldn’t be shocked.  After all, the polls – though seemingly wrong – would still have been within the margin of error this map depicts. Granted, it would be a historic miss by the polls – but they’ve missed badly before.  1948, 1976, 1980, 1994, 2002, 2010.

Related Posts:

• How the Polls Might Be Wrong 2
• How the Polls Might Be Wrong (R337-O221)
• Federal Review Composite Poll, Election Projection and Simulation
• Newspaper Endorsements for President 2012
• Why Romney Will Win (the Nomination and the Election)

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