Trump Headed for Electoral Massacre

I’ve been working the Federal Review Composite Poll since 2000.  A poll aggregate weighting polls based on sample size, sample type and date. We were doing this before RealClearPolitics got out its simple averaging abacus, and we were doing Monte Carlo simulations before Nate Silver monkeyed with so many numbers, metrics and apparent analytical apparati to build a Rube Goldberg monstrosity on top of a single number.  As a result if you look at Federal Review, you knew who was going to win before you voted.  Our last composite tells you who wins the electoral vote.  And a tossup only is a tossup if the lead is under 1%.  I’ve never had a state move from one candidate to the other if it wasn’t w/in 1% in the composite on election day. (Wisconsin in 2004, North Carolina in 2008).

So, where’s the race today?  Though the last 4 elections, no candidate has been this consistently bad.  In each of those races there was a point where each candidate had the lead in the electoral vote count.  That hasn’t happened this time.  In fact, even without tossup states factored in, Clinton has well more than the 270 needed to win this thing.

Nationally, the Federal Review Composite Poll:

Clinton 42.0
Trump 37.3
Johnson 8.4

Federal Review Composite Electoral Vote:

Clinton 334
Trump 175
Tossup 29

Click the map to create your own at 270toWin.com

 

If you work backward from the state polls, focusing on those states most highly correlated with the national results, you can derive a two party vote showing a win for Clinton 54-46.  That’s a massive beating.  And if you are the Republican nominee, GA is a tossup, AZ and SC are barely yours, and Texas isn’t in the strongest strong column, you might want to consider another line of work.  Soon.

I’m not calling the race over yet, but where’s my fork?

Federal Review Composite Poll

Launched in 2000, and copied by RealClearPolitics, Electoral-vote.com and Nate Silver, the Federal Review Composite Poll is a meta-poll weighted by type of sample, number in sample and time.  Accurate as hell, without all the fancy bells and whistles and overwrought forecasts or pretending to treat one poll as superior to another.  Closer to the election, I’ll run some monte carlo simulations to shake out the close races and get a realistic EV range, but right now, just the numbers.

Popular Vote
Clinton:  43.8
Trump: 41.9
(Dem-Rep Margin): 1.9 (2012: 3.9)
Undecided/Third Party: 14.2

Electoral Vote
Clinton:  323
Trump: 215
(Dem-Rep Margin): 108 (2012: 126)
Undecided/Third Party: 0

Notable States:
GA: Trump +3.4
MS: Trump +3.7
TX: Trump +4.8
CO: Trump +2.3
NC: Trump +0.2
PA: Clinton +5.0
OH: Clinton +2.3
FL: Clinton +3.4
NY: Clinton +20
CA: Clinton +15.1