Trump Headed for Electoral Massacre

I’ve been working the Federal Review Composite Poll since 2000.  A poll aggregate weighting polls based on sample size, sample type and date. We were doing this before RealClearPolitics got out its simple averaging abacus, and we were doing Monte Carlo simulations before Nate Silver monkeyed with so many numbers, metrics and apparent analytical apparati to build a Rube Goldberg monstrosity on top of a single number.  As a result if you look at Federal Review, you knew who was going to win before you voted.  Our last composite tells you who wins the electoral vote.  And a tossup only is a tossup if the lead is under 1%.  I’ve never had a state move from one candidate to the other if it wasn’t w/in 1% in the composite on election day. (Wisconsin in 2004, North Carolina in 2008).

So, where’s the race today?  Though the last 4 elections, no candidate has been this consistently bad.  In each of those races there was a point where each candidate had the lead in the electoral vote count.  That hasn’t happened this time.  In fact, even without tossup states factored in, Clinton has well more than the 270 needed to win this thing.

Nationally, the Federal Review Composite Poll:

Clinton 42.0
Trump 37.3
Johnson 8.4

Federal Review Composite Electoral Vote:

Clinton 334
Trump 175
Tossup 29

Click the map to create your own at


If you work backward from the state polls, focusing on those states most highly correlated with the national results, you can derive a two party vote showing a win for Clinton 54-46.  That’s a massive beating.  And if you are the Republican nominee, GA is a tossup, AZ and SC are barely yours, and Texas isn’t in the strongest strong column, you might want to consider another line of work.  Soon.

I’m not calling the race over yet, but where’s my fork?

Trump’s VP Option

And I think he’d consider this.  Arnold Schwarzeneggar.  Former Republican governor of California, clearly not too conservative for the owners of 20% of the electoral votes needed to be president.  But hold on, you say. Arnold was born an Austrian.  In Austria.  He can’t possibly be in line for president.

You are correct.  So that means Paul Ryan is second in line. Choosing Arnold means that Trump doesn’t need Paul Ryan’s endorsement, because if you Ryan’s endorsement was important to you, the voter, then you’ll be glad he’s now second in line.  And maybe he can even start the impeachment process on January 21.

Or Trump is poison to Republican candidates nationwide and Nancy Pelosi becomes speaker, while Hillary’s VP choice is sworn in on January 20 after Hillary gets indicted.

Yea. I got no clue.