Trump Headed for Electoral Massacre

I’ve been working the Federal Review Composite Poll since 2000.  A poll aggregate weighting polls based on sample size, sample type and date. We were doing this before RealClearPolitics got out its simple averaging abacus, and we were doing Monte Carlo simulations before Nate Silver monkeyed with so many numbers, metrics and apparent analytical apparati to build a Rube Goldberg monstrosity on top of a single number.  As a result if you look at Federal Review, you knew who was going to win before you voted.  Our last composite tells you who wins the electoral vote.  And a tossup only is a tossup if the lead is under 1%.  I’ve never had a state move from one candidate to the other if it wasn’t w/in 1% in the composite on election day. (Wisconsin in 2004, North Carolina in 2008).

So, where’s the race today?  Though the last 4 elections, no candidate has been this consistently bad.  In each of those races there was a point where each candidate had the lead in the electoral vote count.  That hasn’t happened this time.  In fact, even without tossup states factored in, Clinton has well more than the 270 needed to win this thing.

Nationally, the Federal Review Composite Poll:

Clinton 42.0
Trump 37.3
Johnson 8.4

Federal Review Composite Electoral Vote:

Clinton 334
Trump 175
Tossup 29

Click the map to create your own at 270toWin.com

 

If you work backward from the state polls, focusing on those states most highly correlated with the national results, you can derive a two party vote showing a win for Clinton 54-46.  That’s a massive beating.  And if you are the Republican nominee, GA is a tossup, AZ and SC are barely yours, and Texas isn’t in the strongest strong column, you might want to consider another line of work.  Soon.

I’m not calling the race over yet, but where’s my fork?

Federal Review Composite Poll

Launched in 2000, and copied by RealClearPolitics, Electoral-vote.com and Nate Silver, the Federal Review Composite Poll is a meta-poll weighted by type of sample, number in sample and time.  Accurate as hell, without all the fancy bells and whistles and overwrought forecasts or pretending to treat one poll as superior to another.  Closer to the election, I’ll run some monte carlo simulations to shake out the close races and get a realistic EV range, but right now, just the numbers.

Popular Vote
Clinton:  43.8
Trump: 41.9
(Dem-Rep Margin): 1.9 (2012: 3.9)
Undecided/Third Party: 14.2

Electoral Vote
Clinton:  323
Trump: 215
(Dem-Rep Margin): 108 (2012: 126)
Undecided/Third Party: 0

Notable States:
GA: Trump +3.4
MS: Trump +3.7
TX: Trump +4.8
CO: Trump +2.3
NC: Trump +0.2
PA: Clinton +5.0
OH: Clinton +2.3
FL: Clinton +3.4
NY: Clinton +20
CA: Clinton +15.1

Trump’s VP Option

And I think he’d consider this.  Arnold Schwarzeneggar.  Former Republican governor of California, clearly not too conservative for the owners of 20% of the electoral votes needed to be president.  But hold on, you say. Arnold was born an Austrian.  In Austria.  He can’t possibly be in line for president.

You are correct.  So that means Paul Ryan is second in line. Choosing Arnold means that Trump doesn’t need Paul Ryan’s endorsement, because if you Ryan’s endorsement was important to you, the voter, then you’ll be glad he’s now second in line.  And maybe he can even start the impeachment process on January 21.

Or Trump is poison to Republican candidates nationwide and Nancy Pelosi becomes speaker, while Hillary’s VP choice is sworn in on January 20 after Hillary gets indicted.

Yea. I got no clue.

That Time Donald Trump Saved the Republican Party and Saved America from Hillary

Donald Trump does not want to give up his business, his lifestyle, who he is – but he’ll have to if he becomes president.  So, he doesn’t want to be president.  But he also doesn’t want to be a loser, like Mitt Romney.

I’ve been noodling over this for quite a while.  Last summer, I was sure he was just burnishing his brand and having fun, never expecting to do more than influence the race and take some credit for whatever happens.  They’re talking about immigration only because of me, that I can tell you!

Now, there’s some evidence that he never expected to get the nomination, never intended to.  John Fund wonders in National Review if Trump is purposefully or subconsciously sabotaging his campaign. My hang up was that I couldn’t imagine that Trump or his staff was politically savvy enough to have planned this out.  But they didn’t.  They are just winging it.

I mentioned that Trump hates to lose.  Everyone he doesn’t like gets the ultimate label of Trump disrespect.  Loser.  Listen to Trump explain his business failures.  They were all, really, smart exits by Trump.  I sold my interest to the bank and made a good deal for myself.

Every poll says he’d lose to Hillary Clinton.  Taken in isolation from the general election competition, Hillary Clinton is the least electable Democrat since George McGovern in ‘72.  Democrats know this, or they wouldn’t be keeping an actual, card-carrying, publicly confessed and proud 74 year old Socialist on life support. In their heart of hearts, they hope Trump is the nominee and Hillary gets indicted, so they can realize their Marxist dream.  Trump’s dumb about a lot of things, but he’s smart about knowing when he’s winning and when he’s losing.  That’s why he gets out just in time.

And just in time for Trump is a contested convention.  And the only way that happens is if he falls short of a majority of delegates.  If he quits the race, even while whining that the GOP treated him badly, he still loses.  Because that means “the establishment” or Reince Preibus or the editors of The National Review beat him. And a beaten candidate is a loser.

I don’t know that’s he’s trying to sabotage his campaign, but he clearly isn’t trying to win right now. It seems it’s nearly impossible for him to get the delegates he needs unless he destroys the competition in Wisconsin next week – but he’s trailing in the polls and even left the campaign trail to alienate women and pro-life voters.

So, here’s the plan today.  Not what he envisioned a year ago, but he figured he’d be out by now, doing the talk show circuit, critiquing the candidates from afar, explaining he was never in it to win.

Get to the convention with the most votes.  He’ll always call this a win.  But instead of whining about GOP bigshots handing him his ass, he instead plays Kingmaker.  I could have been the nominee if I wanted.  But I care about the country. The party needed unity, so that’s why I made the deal with Kasich. It’s a good deal.  A very very good deal. LyinTed could never get elected, so I made Kasich president.  Who would leave Mar-a-lago to live in a 200 year old run down mansion in Washington? A bad part of Washington too. Like a prison. I don’t want a prison.  I want to do a lot of things. Good things. Important things. With my business. Amazing business.

So, he gets there without the votes, makes Kasich the nominee on the first vote. Says he won the primaries, but he’s the biggest patriot there is, so I did this great thing.  Let’s find a consensus candidate I told em. Do what’s best for America.  I’m the biggest statesmen there is.  I can be very very statesman.  Believe me.  I coulda been president. But, Kasich’s good.  He’ll be amazing, very, very nice guy, let me tell you. That’s why I put him in there. And the GOP wins the White House thanks solely to Donald J. Trump.  You’re welcome.

Oh, and he always thought that one guy’d be great with a little more seasoning, so he puts lil Marco on the ticket.  Kasich/Rubio.  And Trump can go back to being The Donald, claiming all credit for getting his apprentices elected.

Now let me show you my plans for this tremendous, amazing new property.  Classy, elegant.  Melania loves it . . .