Federal Review Composite Poll

Launched in 2000, and copied by RealClearPolitics, Electoral-vote.com and Nate Silver, the Federal Review Composite Poll is a meta-poll weighted by type of sample, number in sample and time.  Accurate as hell, without all the fancy bells and whistles and overwrought forecasts or pretending to treat one poll as superior to another.  Closer to the election, I’ll run some monte carlo simulations to shake out the close races and get a realistic EV range, but right now, just the numbers.

Popular Vote
Clinton:  43.8
Trump: 41.9
(Dem-Rep Margin): 1.9 (2012: 3.9)
Undecided/Third Party: 14.2

Electoral Vote
Clinton:  323
Trump: 215
(Dem-Rep Margin): 108 (2012: 126)
Undecided/Third Party: 0

Notable States:
GA: Trump +3.4
MS: Trump +3.7
TX: Trump +4.8
CO: Trump +2.3
NC: Trump +0.2
PA: Clinton +5.0
OH: Clinton +2.3
FL: Clinton +3.4
NY: Clinton +20
CA: Clinton +15.1