Federal Review Composite Poll

Launched in 2000, and copied by RealClearPolitics, Electoral-vote.com and Nate Silver, the Federal Review Composite Poll is a meta-poll weighted by type of sample, number in sample and time.  Accurate as hell, without all the fancy bells and whistles and overwrought forecasts or pretending to treat one poll as superior to another.  Closer to the election, I’ll run some monte carlo simulations to shake out the close races and get a realistic EV range, but right now, just the numbers.

Popular Vote
Clinton:  43.8
Trump: 41.9
(Dem-Rep Margin): 1.9 (2012: 3.9)
Undecided/Third Party: 14.2

Electoral Vote
Clinton:  323
Trump: 215
(Dem-Rep Margin): 108 (2012: 126)
Undecided/Third Party: 0

Notable States:
GA: Trump +3.4
MS: Trump +3.7
TX: Trump +4.8
CO: Trump +2.3
NC: Trump +0.2
PA: Clinton +5.0
OH: Clinton +2.3
FL: Clinton +3.4
NY: Clinton +20
CA: Clinton +15.1

Trump’s VP Option

And I think he’d consider this.  Arnold Schwarzeneggar.  Former Republican governor of California, clearly not too conservative for the owners of 20% of the electoral votes needed to be president.  But hold on, you say. Arnold was born an Austrian.  In Austria.  He can’t possibly be in line for president.

You are correct.  So that means Paul Ryan is second in line. Choosing Arnold means that Trump doesn’t need Paul Ryan’s endorsement, because if you Ryan’s endorsement was important to you, the voter, then you’ll be glad he’s now second in line.  And maybe he can even start the impeachment process on January 21.

Or Trump is poison to Republican candidates nationwide and Nancy Pelosi becomes speaker, while Hillary’s VP choice is sworn in on January 20 after Hillary gets indicted.

Yea. I got no clue.